Project 2
Sales Forecast Memo
due Wednesday, 17 OCT, 11:59 PM

Historical consumption of fuel (in millions of cubic feet) by natural gas powered vehicles in the U.S. is shown below:


DATE MMcF
31-Dec-97 707
30-Jun-98 768
31-Dec-98 793
30-Jun-99 955
31-Dec-99 987
30-Jun-00 1045
31-Dec-00 1080
30-Jun-01 1195
31-Dec-01 1235
30-Jun-02 1229
31-Dec-02 1270
30-Jun-03 1502
31-Dec-03 1552
30-Jun-04 1681
31-Dec-04 1737
30-Jun-05 1881
31-Dec-05 1944
30-Jun-06 1951
31-Dec-06 2016
30-Jun-07 2026
31-Dec-07 2094
30-Jun-08 2130
31-Dec-08 2201
30-Jun-09 2241
31-Dec-09 2315
30-Jun-10 2521
31-Dec-10 2605
30-Jun-11 2700
31-Dec-11 2790
30-Jun-12 2700

This data can be downloaded as a CSV (generic spreadsheet) file: proj2.csv


Assignment:

Prepare a formal memo discussing (supporting, defending) your expectations for the amount of natural gas consumption by vehicles in the U.S. that will be reported for December 2012.  Your expectations for the consumption report should consider not only this historical data, but must also consider commonly known issues in the marketing environment.  By "commonly known," I mean that you should not conduct any sort of external research of the marketing environment, but rather are expected to consider environmental trends in the US and worldwide about which a reasonably aware person should have familiarity.  That is, forecasting requires a lot of assumptions, and your ability to persuasively use relevant assumptions are an important part of your memo.

Your memo, no more than about a page in length, MUST contain the following elements (in order):

  • statement of objective
  • description of method
  • discussion of facts and assumptions
  • conclusions

If you have questions, be sure to post on the class discussion board (Blackboard).  Before posting any questions or comments, however, be sure that you have studied reading assignments relevant to the marketing environment, marketing strategy, marketing research, and forecasting.

I will open only ONE file for this assignment, no matter how many you send.  The file must be in either MS Word (.doc) format or PDF (.pdf) format and your document must print in portrait (not landscape) orientation on 8.5 x 11 inch paper.  If you want to add an appendix to the end your report -- additional pages for tables, graphs, calculations, and such -- it must be part of the same .doc or .pdf file that you send.  If you send your report as a spreadsheet file, I will assign a zero without opening it.

Use your TAMUT ace email account to submit your report as a file attachment.  Mail to: robert(dot)owen(at)tamut(dot)edu.  Put "Project 2" followed by your name as the email subject. 

Length is expected to be about a page, single spaced. . Be sure that your name is typed at the top of your report followed by a report name that identifies the projoject.