Project 2
Sales Forecast Memo
due before 11:59 AM (noon) Tuesday, 15 OCT (Week 8)

The U.S. Unemployment rate (percent of workforce over age 16 that is unemployed) during the months of March and September since March 2007 is shown in the table below:


DATE UNEMPL.
Mar-07 4.4
Sep-07 4.7
Mar-08 5.1
Sep-08 6.1
Mar-09 8.7
Sep-09 9.8
Mar-10 9.9
Sep-10 9.5
Mar-11 8.9
Sep-11 9.0
Mar-12 8.2
Sep-12 7.8
Mar-13 7.6
Sep-13 ???

Assignment:

Prepare a formal memo discussing (supporting, defending) your expectations for the rate (percentage) of unemployment that will be reported for the month of September 2013.  Your expectations should consider not only this historical data, but must also consider commonly known issues in the past and current marketing environment.  By "commonly known," I mean that you should not conduct any sort of external research of the marketing environment, but rather are expected to consider environmental trends in the US and worldwide about which a reasonably aware person should have familiarity.  That is, forecasting requires a lot of assumptions, and your ability to persuasively use relevant assumptions are an important part of your memo.

Your memo, no more than about a page in length, MUST contain the following elements (in order):

  • statement of objective
  • description of method
  • discussion of facts and assumptions
  • conclusions

If you have questions, be sure to post on the class discussion board (Blackboard).  Before posting any questions or comments, however, be sure that you have studied reading assignments relevant to the marketing environment, marketing strategy, marketing research, and forecasting.

I will open only ONE file for this assignment, no matter how many you send.  The file must be in either MS Word (.doc) format or PDF (.pdf) format and your document must print in portrait (not landscape) orientation on 8.5 x 11 inch paper.  If you want to add an appendix to the end your report -- additional pages for tables, graphs, calculations, and such -- it must be part of the same, single .doc or .pdf file that you send.  If you send your report as a spreadsheet file, I will assign a zero without opening it.

Use Blackboard to submit this report in the same manner that you had submitted Project 1.

Length is expected to be about a page, single spaced. . Be sure that your name is typed at the top of your report followed by a report name that identifies the project.