North American freight rail car deliveries (in units) from 1978 through 2006 are as follows:

This data can be downloaded as a CSV (spreadsheet) file: railcar_deliveries.csv

Assignment:

1) Prepare a handwritten plot that includes:

1. actual deliveries for each year from 1978 through 2007
2. forecast deliveries for each year from 1981 through 2008 using a three year moving average
3. forecast deliveries for each year from 1980 through 2008 using exponential smoothing with alpha=(.8).

2) Along with the plot, prepare a handwritten chart (line by line) that shows all steps of each calculation for how you derived the forecast for each year.  Two charts could be started to look something like this:

YEAR	ACTUAL DELIVERIES	FORECAST	calculation (3 year moving average)
1978	67,286	----
1979	84,869	----
1980	80,470	----
1981	41,435	77,542	= ((67,286 + 84,869 + 80,470) / 3)
1982	15,515	68,925	= ((84,869 + 80,470 + 41,435) / 3)

YEAR	ACTUAL DELIVERIES	FORECAST	calculation (exp. smoothing, a=.8)
1978	67,286	----
1979	84,869	67,286	(seed with naive forecast)
1980	80,470	81,352	= (.8)(84,869) + (.2)(67,286)
1981	41,435	80,646	= (.8)(80,470) + (.2)(81,352)
1982	15,515	49,277	= (.8)(41,435) + (.2)(80,646)

3) Prepare a formal typed memo discussing (defending) your expectations for total North American freight rail car deliveries for the year ending in 2008.  Attach your handwritten calculations chart and your handwritten plot.  Your expectations for total deliveries should consider not only this historical data, but must also consider commonly known issues in the marketing environment.  By "commonly known", I mean that you should not conduct any sort of external research of the marketing environment, but rather are expected to consider environmental trends in the US and worldwide about which a reasonably aware person should have familiarity.  That is, forecasting requires a lot of assumptions, and your ability to persuasively use relevant assumptions are an important part of your memo.

Since your attachments must be handwritten (attached to a formal, typed memo), you will not be able to submit this assignment electronically.  If I am not in my office (room 215), submit your assignment to the staff support folks in the College of Business office (room 225) during normal business hours.  If you send by USPS, your envelope must have been postmarked at least five calendar days before the due day if it is received in my campus mail box after the due date.  In all cases, be sure to retain a receipt as either proof of mailing or proof that you personally gave it to me or a staff support person.

If you have questions, be sure to post on the class message board (WebCT).  Before posting any questions or comments, be sure that you have studied reading assignments relevant to the marketing environment, marketing strategy, marketing research, and forecasting.