The FAA lists the following annual total number of "unruly passenger" incidents that were reported for the calendar years 1995-2008:

Specifically, these have to do with violations of Federal Aviation Regulations 91.11, 121.580, and 135.120 which state that "no person may assault, threaten, intimidate, or interfere with a crewmember in the performance of the crewmember's duties aboard an aircraft being operated."

Assignment:

1) Prepare a plot that includes:

1. actual number of reported incidents for each year from 1995 through 2007
2. forecasted number of reported incidents for each year from 1995 through 2008 using a three year moving average
3. forecasted number of reported incidents for each year from 1995 through 2008 using exponential smoothing with alpha=(.8).

2) Along with the plot, prepare a chart (line by line) that shows all steps of each calculation for how you derived the forecast for each year.  Two charts could be started to look something like this:

YEAR	REPORTED INCIDENTS	FORECAST	calculation (3 year moving average)
1995	144	----
1996	184	----
1997	235	----
1998	200	188	= ((144 + 184 + 235) / 3)
1999	226	206	= ((184 + 235 + 200) / 3)

YEAR	REPORTED INCIDENTS	FORECAST	calculation (exp. smoothing, a=.8)
1995	144	----
1996	184	144	(seed with naive forecast)
1997	235	176	= (.8)(184) + (.2)(144)
1998	200	223	= (.8)(235) + (.2)(176)

3) Prepare a formal typed memo discussing (supporting, defending) your expectations for total number of incidents in 2008.  Attach your calculations chart and your plot.  Your expectations for total incidents should consider not only this historical data, but must also consider commonly known issues in the marketing environment.  By "commonly known," I mean that you should not conduct any sort of external research of the marketing environment, but rather are expected to consider environmental trends in the US and worldwide about which a reasonably aware person should have familiarity.  That is, forecasting requires a lot of assumptions, and your ability to persuasively use relevant assumptions are an important part of your memo.

Your memo, no more than about a page in length, MUST contain the following elements (in order):

• statement of objective
• description of method
• discussion of facts and assumptions
• conclusions and recommendations
• attachments (the plots and charts above)

(You actually won't have any recommendations to report in this situation - only conclusions and a final forecast that result from your analysis.  I have left quot;recommendations" on the outline because that is an outline that is typically used in certain kinds of analyses.)

Your attachments may be prepared by hand (pencil and ruler) or electronically prepared (attached to a formal, typed memo).  To submit hand drawn charts, however, you would either have to scan a PDF copy to send electronically, or would have to submit the originals by snail mail (USPS) or your own personal delivery to my office. If you send by USPS, your envelope must have been postmarked at least five calendar days before the due day if it is received in my campus mail box after the due date. 

If you have questions, be sure to post on the class message board (WebCT).  Before posting any questions or comments, be sure that you have studied reading assignments relevant to the marketing environment, marketing strategy, marketing research, and forecasting.

Given some issues with submission of the first project, the following problems will be considered in assigning a grade: It is inappropriate to attach a cover page to a memo in a real workplace, and so it is equally inappropriate to attach a cover page to this memo.  Furthermore, an electronic submission in response to a real call for bids, grant request, etc. could result in complete rejection if you

• make multiple submissions
• don't send in a document format that can be opened by the recipient
• do not send in a format that can be printed on normal sized paper
• don't include your name on the document
• don't follow formatting instructions
• don't submit by the deadline