Click on the box next to each answer. Keep track of your own score.

1. A sales force composite is a good method of forecasting since field sales people probably know what to expect from customers and probably understand immediate competitor strategies better than anyone else. True or false?
   • A. true INCORRECT See answer B.                                                                             
   • B. false CORRECT This could be a very good method for the reason given -  salespeople are often closer than anyone to the  external environment. But the results could be  biased due to organizational culture or the  relationship between salespeople and management.  If salespeople believe that they will be expected  to achieve the level of sales that they predict,  then they might return predictions that are low.  If salespeople believe that their worth will be  judged on the basis of their predictions, then  they might return predictions that are high.
2. Moving average and exponential smoothing are
   • A. correlational methods of forecasting. INCORRECT                                                                             
   • B. time-series methods of forecasting. CORRECT Data across a period of time is called a time series.
   • C. economic models. INCORRECT Moving average and exponential smoothing are attempts  to model the data in order to find a pattern and  a trend; this model is then used to make a  prediction about future sales.
   • D. forms of linear regression analysis. INCORRECT Linear regression attempts to fit a straight line  through a time series; moving average and  exponential smoothing are attempts to find  a (not-linear) pattern.
3. The Delphi method of forecasting is which type?
   • A. judgment method CORRECT
   • B. counting method INCORRECT
   • C. time series method INCORRECT
   • D. association/causal method INCORRECT